What Happens When People Stop Taking the Weight Loss Drug Zepbound

As a new generation of highly effective weight loss drugs hits the market, doctors are still trying to figure out how long people will need to take them for the best results.

A new study offers a clue. Writing in JAMA, researchers report on what happens when people stop taking the weight loss drug tirzepatide, known as Zepbound. Tirzepatide can help people lose double digit percentages of their body weight, compared to single digit percentages with diet and exercise.

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The study, sponsored by the drug’s manufacturer, Eli Lilly, included 670 people with a body mass index (BMI) of 30 or higher, or with a BMI of at least 27 and one weight-related health complication other than diabetes. Everyone took tirzepatide for nine months, and then were randomly and blindly assigned to continue taking the drug or start taking a placebo for a year. Doctors provided all of the participants with diet and exercise support throughout the study.

After nine months on the drug, people lost an average of 20.9% of their body weight. Those who continued on the medication lost an additional 5% of their original body weight over the next year—but those who took a placebo gained 14% of their body weight back. Any improvements they had made in measures like blood pressure, cholesterol levels, and waist circumference also started to wane.

“Just like diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and many other metabolic diseases, the results show that chronic treatment of some type is going to be necessary in order to maintain all the benefits of weight loss achieved with the treatment,” says Dr. Louis Aronne, director of the comprehensive weight control center at Weill Cornell Medicine and lead author of the study.

But the benefits didn’t disappear as soon as people stopped taking tirpzepatide. Even a year after stopping, people still didn’t return to their original weight, and they continued to improve in some areas, such as becoming more sensitive to insulin, reducing their risk of diabetes, and having healthier triglyceride levels. “This tells us that chronic treatment is going to be necessary for optimal outcomes but that all of the benefit is not lost immediately if people stop taking that treatment,” says Aronne.

Since tirzepatide was just approved in November, it’s still too early to know how long people might need to take the medication, and how it can best fit into a weight loss program. “What if some people go to a lower dose of the medicine, or take it less frequently, or have more intensive behavioral or nutritional interventions? Will they be better able to maintain their weight loss?” Aronne says. “All of those things are possible; we’ll just have to wait and see.”

What is clear now is that pairing the drug with diet and exercise is likely to help people lose the most weight and keep it off. It’s possible that the initial weight loss the medication causes could jump start physiological changes that will make it easier for people to adjust their eating habits and become more physically active. “What these medicines do is they tend to help people comply with a good diet; they are not as hungry and may not have the same cravings,” says Aronne. Tirzepatide isn’t meant to replace healthy habits, “but to help make those habits better.”

source https://time.com/6344308/weight-loss-drug-zepbound/

COP28 Draft Climate Deal Floats Fossil Fuel Cuts for First Time

The United Arab Emirates, presiding over this year’s COP28 climate talks, presented a draft deal that called on countries to cut their consumption and production of fossil fuels, trying to end an impasse between developed countries and petrostates with less than 24 hours until the summit is due to end.

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If the language stays, it would mark the first time in nearly three decades that a call to reduce fossil fuels made it into the final deal at a United Nations climate summit.

The 21-page plan is meant to bring projections of global temperature increases to below 1.5C, and calls on the reduction of fossil fuels to be “just” and “orderly.” The text also says that coal should be “rapidly” phased down, with limitations on new power generation.

The proclamation is set to be the defining issue of the COP28 summit being held in Dubai, with some oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, fiercely resisting any move to chart an end to the use of polluting energy sources.

Mohamed Adow, the director of Power Shift Africa, said the blueprint’s language on fossil fuels “lays the ground for transformational change.”

“This is the first COP where the word ‘fossil fuels’ are actually included in the draft decision,” Adow said. “This is the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era.”

Talks are scheduled to conclude Tuesday, bringing to a close a two-week summit that’s focused on whether countries would be willing to shift away from the oil, gas and coal that have powered the global economy for more than a century. Nations will now provide the UAE with their thoughts on the latest text, which also commits countries to tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling the rate of energy efficiency this decade.

Sultan Al Jaber, the COP28 president who’s been accused of conflicts of interest because he’s also head of Abu Dhai National Oil Co., said on Sunday that he was working on getting groundbreaking language of fossil fuels into the final text.

“The COP28 presidency has been clear from the beginning about our ambitions,” a spokesperson said after the draft’s release on Monday. “This text reflects those ambitions and is a huge step forward. Now it is in the hands of the parties, who we trust to do what is best for humanity and the planet.”

Read more: COP28 Is a Business Bonanza. Should It Be?

The EU, US and small island states have been among those pushing for a phase out of fossil fuels, albeit with various differences over issues such as the role carbon capture and storage should play. The draft text contains references to accelerating the deployment of carbon capture and storage, a controversial technology that has yet to be proven at scale.

Countries including Brazil want to see developed countries first start the shift away from fossil fuels, while members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, including Saudi Arabia and Iraq, have opposed any mention of a phase down or phase out. “We are a country that produces oil, but we also have a very strong issue with our forests — we face an inflection point,” said Marina Silva, Brazil’s environment minister. “We clearly assume it is necessary to face the problem of fossil fuels and we are looking for a solution matches the 1.5C challenge.”  

Under the draft, countries would also gree for the first time to go beyond carbon dioxide in targeting methane and other potent greenhouse gases with substantial reductions by 2030. That follows a voluntary pledge for a 30% global reduction in methane first introduced by the US and EU two years ago.

The move is significant because methane, fluorinated gases and nitrous oxide are far more powerful at warming the earth’s temperature — and slashing them now is seen as vital to keeping short-term temperature targets within reach.

Following the Science 

Sharp observers noted that commitments in the draft text are preceded by the phrase: “take actions that could include.” That qualifier “makes all the listed actions optional for nations,” said Rachel Cleetus, policy director at the Union of Concerned Scientists.

The text is “extremely disappointing, concerning, and nowhere close to the level of ambition people around the world deserve,” Cleetus said.

The UAE achieved a landmark deal on the first day to get a fund up and running to help developing countries pay for the losses and damages caused by increasingly extreme weather. The country and developed nations have since committed over half a billion dollars to the fund, with a further $80 billion of financial pledges being made during the summit.

source https://time.com/6344685/cop28-draft-climate-deal-fossil-fuel-cuts/

Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida Reportedly Set to Purge Cabinet Amid Scandal

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is set to replace as many as 15 ministers and junior ministers, the Asahi newspaper said, as he seeks to contain the fallout from a slush fund scandal threatening to paralyze his government. 

The reported purge of all officials from the Liberal Democratic Party faction formerly headed by the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe comes as suspicions emerge that the group had systematically concealed political funds, the paper said late Sunday. Kishida also plans to oust Abe faction members from senior party positions, according to media reports over the weekend. 

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“I’ll take appropriate action at the appropriate time, to avoid delays to management of the government,” Kishida told reporters Monday, declining to comment further on his plans.

The highest-profile among those set to be ousted are Trade Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura, who has helped drive Japan’s plans to regain its lost status as a world-class chipmaker, and Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno, the top government spokesman. The reshuffle is likely to come after the end of the parliamentary session Wednesday.

It’s unclear whether even such a drastic clampdown would stabilize support for Kishida’s government, which is the lowest for a Japanese premier in more than a decade in some polls. While no general election need be held until 2025, the LDP could opt to replace him when his term as party leader ends in September, or earlier.

Read More: Prime Minister Fumio Kishida Is Giving a Once Pacifist Japan a More Assertive Role on the Global Stage

A survey by the Sankei newspaper and broadcast news network FNN carried out Saturday and Sunday found support for Kishida’s cabinet had fallen more than five percentage points on last month to 22.5%, a fresh low since he took office just over two years ago. 

More than 90% of respondents said the suspicions over funding were a problem and a similar proportion said Kishida should be replaced when his term expires, or before. 

The long-ruling LDP includes five major factions that raise funds and vie to appoint their own members to government positions, with the Abe group being the largest. Kishida will this time seek to appoint lawmakers who don’t belong to any faction to some senior positions, the Mainichi newspaper said. 

LDP factions expect each of their members to sell a certain number of tickets to fundraising events. The income from any tickets sold in excess of the target is returned to the individual lawmakers. If more than ¥200,000 in party tickets is purchased by any one person or group, the amount must by law be registered as a donation. 

According to the Asahi and other media, the lawmakers are suspected of failing to declare about ¥10 million ($69,000) in income per person from fundraising events held by the Abe faction.

A loss of power for the conservative Abe faction, which has tended to maintain its late leader’s support for ultra-easy monetary policy, would have the potential to push the yen higher, according to Takeshi Ishida, currency strategist at Resona Bank. Instability in the administration as a whole could cause stocks to fall, and trigger risk aversion, he added.

The reports of a reshuffle come after the scandal dominated government briefings and a parliamentary committee session Friday. The opposition Constitutional Democratic Party is set to submit a no-confidence motion against Matsuno to parliament as soon as Monday, public broadcaster NHK said. 

Previous scandals have already weighed on Kishida’s support, while surveys have shown voters are dissatisfied with the measures he has taken to shield them from the effects of inflation. His policies include extending subsidies on gasoline and utilities to spring 2024 and ordering tax rebates and handouts for low-income households.

A poll by the Mainichi newspaper published in November found support for Kishida’s cabinet had slumped to 21%, the lowest for a Japanese premier since 2011. 

Data released Dec. 8 showed Japan’s economy shrank at the fastest pace since the height of the pandemic in the three months through September, giving voters little reason to warm to Kishida, who took office just over two years ago.

source https://time.com/6344573/fumio-kishida-japan-scandal-replace-ministers/

Blinken Defends Bypassing Congress to Sell Weapons to Israel and Urges Lawmakers to Help Ukraine

WASHINGTON — Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Sunday defended the emergency sale to Israel of nearly 13,000+ rounds of tank ammunition and also called for quick congressional approval of more than $100 billion in aid for Israel, Ukraine and other national security priorities.

Blinken said the needs of Israel’s military operations in Gaza justify the rare decision to bypass Congress. “Israel is in combat right now with Hamas,” he said during television interviews. “And we want to make sure that Israel has what it needs to defend itself against Hamas.”

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The tank ammunition and related support constitute only a small portion of military sales to Israel, Blinken said, and that the rest remains subject to congressional review. “It’s very important that Congress‘ voice be heard in this,” he said.

The decision to proceed with the sale of more than $106 million for tank shells came as the Biden administration’s larger aid package is caught up in a debate over U.S. immigration policy and border security.

Blinken noted that President Joe Biden has said he is willing to make significant compromises to get the aid package moving. “It’s something the president is fully prepared to engage on,” Blinken said.

"When it comes to the weapons that we transfer, there are rules that go along with them. Those rules apply to Israel…including the way they’re used and the need, the imperative of respecting international humanitarian law," Secretary Antony Blinken says. https://t.co/wyPiN7dTK6 pic.twitter.com/Ha6DFfrU7X

— This Week (@ThisWeekABC) December 10, 2023

Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, said there is bipartisan agreement that something has to be done to address record numbers of migrants crossing into the United States from Mexico.

“We want to solve that, to secure the border. I just saw the president of the United States say that we’ve got to secure the border. He’s right. So, any effort that doesn’t do that will be rejected by Republicans,” Romney said.

The stakes are especially high for Ukraine, Blinken said, given that “ we are running out of funding ” for the Ukrainians.

“This is a time to really step up because if we don’t, we know what happens. (Russian President Vladimir) Putin will be able to move forward with impunity and we know he won’t stop in Ukraine.”

Congress already has allocated $111 billion to assist Ukraine, and Biden’s budget director, Shalanda Young, said in a letter this past week to House and Senate leaders that the U.S. will run out of funding to send weapons and assistance to Ukraine by the end of the year, which would “kneecap” Ukraine on the battlefield.

But Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, said the administration has yet to justify additional aid to Ukraine. “So what we’re saying to the president and really to the entire world is, you need to articulate what the ambition is. What is $61 billion going to accomplish that $100 billion hasn’t?” Vance said.

Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., said the money would make a difference because Russia is struggling to fund its war effort. “It can change the outcome of this war,” Murphy said. “Because at the very same time that we are making a renewed commitment to Ukraine, Russia’s ability to continue to fight this war is in jeopardy.”

Romney said he also supports the aid to Ukraine. “My own view is that it’s very much in America’s interest to see Ukraine successful and to provide the weapons that Ukraine needs to defend itself. Anything other than that would be a huge dereliction of our responsibility, I believe, to the world of democracy but also to our own national interest,” he said.

Blinken appeared on ABC’s This Week and CNN’s State of the Union. Romney and Murphy were on NBC’s Meet the Press. Vance was on CNN.

source https://time.com/6344552/blinken-congress-israel-weapons-deal-ukraine-aid/

Fighting Rages On Across Gaza as Israel Moves Ahead With Renewed U.S. Support

DEIR AL-BALAH, Gaza Strip — Heavy fighting raged Sunday across Gaza, including in the devastated north, as Israel pressed ahead with its offensive after the U.S. blocked the latest international push for a cease-fire and rushed more munitions to its close ally.

Israel has faced rising international outrage and calls for a permanent cease-fire after the killing of thousands of Palestinian civilians. About 90% of Gaza’s 2.3 million people have been displaced within the besieged territory, where U.N. agencies say there is no safe place to flee.

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The United States has lent vital support to the offensive once again in recent days, by vetoing United Nations Security Council efforts to end the fighting that enjoyed wide international support, and by pushing through an emergency sale of over $100 million worth of tank ammunition to Israel.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thanked U.S. President Joe Biden for the “important ammunition for the continuation of the war.”

The U.S. has pledged unwavering support for Israel’s goal of crushing Hamas’ military and governing abilities, and returning all the hostages captured in the Oct. 7 attack that triggered the war. Hamas and other Palestinian militants stormed into southern Israel that day, killing some 1,200 people and capturing around 240, over 100 of whom were released during a weeklong cease-fire late last month.

Israel’s air and ground war in response has killed thousands of Palestinians, mostly civilians, and forced some 1.9 million people to flee their homes. With a trickle of aid allowed in, and delivery impossible in much of the territory, Palestinians face severe shortages of food, water and other basic goods.

“Expect public order to completely break down soon, and an even worse situation could unfold including epidemic diseases and increased pressure for mass displacement into Egypt,” U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told a forum in Qatar, a key intermediary.

Qatar’s prime minister, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, told the forum that mediation efforts will continue to stop the war and have all hostages released, but “unfortunately, we are not seeing the same willingness that we had seen in the weeks before.”

Israel’s national security adviser, Tzachi Hanegbi, told Israel’s Channel 12 TV that the U.S. has set no deadline for Israel to achieve its goals of dismantling Hamas and returning all hostages.

“The evaluation that this can’t be measured in weeks is correct, and I’m not sure it can be measured in months,” he said.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken told CNN that “we have these discussions with Israel including about the duration as well as how it’s prosecuting this campaign against Hamas. These are decisions for Israel to make.”

This is a war that cannot be won, Jordan’s foreign minister, Ayman Safadi, asserted to the Qatar forum, and warned that “Israel has created an amount of hatred that will haunt this region that will define generations to come.”FIGHTING AND ARRESTS IN THE NORTH

Israeli forces face heavy resistance, even in northern Gaza, where neighborhoods have been flattened by air strikes and where ground troops have operated for over six weeks.

Israel’s Channel 13 TV broadcast footage showing dozens of detainees stripped to their underwear, hands in the air. Several held assault rifles above their heads, and one man walked forward and placed a gun on the ground.

Other videos have shown groups of unarmed men held in similar conditions, without clothes, bound and blindfolded. Detainees from a group who were released Saturday told The Associated Press they had been beaten and denied food and water.

Israel has not commented on the latest video or the allegations of mistreatment, but government spokesman Eylon Levy said “increasing numbers” of Hamas fighters were surrendering.

Residents said there was still heavy fighting in the Gaza City neighborhood of Shijaiyah and the Jabaliya refugee camp, a dense urban area housing Palestinian families who fled or were driven out of what is now Israel during the 1948 war surrounding its creation.

“They are attacking anything that moves,” said Hamza Abu Fatouh, a Shijaiyah resident. He said the dead and wounded were left in the streets as ambulances could no longer reach the area, where Israeli snipers and tanks positioned themselves among abandoned buildings.

“The resistance also fights back,” he added.

Israel ordered the evacuation of the northern third of the territory, including Gaza City, early in the war, but tens of thousands of people have remained, fearing that the south would be no safer or that they would never be allowed to return to their homes.

Heavy fighting was also underway in and around the southern city of Khan Younis.WAITING DAYS FOR FOOD

The price of food has soared as much of Gaza faces severe shortages. Abdulsalam al-Majdalawi said he had come every day for nearly two weeks to a U.N. distribution center, hoping to get food for his family of seven.

“Every day, we spend five or six hours here and return home (empty handed),” he said. “Thank God, today they drew our name.”

With the war in its third month, the Palestinian death toll in Gaza has surpassed 17,700, the majority women and children, according to the Health Ministry in the Hamas-controlled territory. The ministry does not differentiate between civilian and combatant deaths.

Israel holds Hamas responsible for civilian casualties, saying the militants put civilians in danger by fighting in dense, residential neighborhoods. The military says 97 Israeli soldiers have died in the ground offensive. Palestinian militants have continued firing rockets into Israel.

Netanyahu’s office said Hamas still has 117 hostages, as well as the remains of 20 people killed in captivity or during the Oct. 7 attack. The militants hope to exchange them for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel.

Israel says it has provided detailed instructions for civilians to evacuate to safer areas, even as it strikes what it says are militant targets in all parts of the territory. Thousands have fled to the southern town of Rafah and other areas along the border with Egypt — one of the last areas where aid agencies are able to deliver food and water.

The war has raised tensions across the region, with Lebanon’s Hezbollah trading fire with Israel along the border and other Iran-backed militant groups targeting the U.S. in Syria and Iraq.

France said one of its warships in the Red Sea shot down two drones that approached it from Yemen, where Iran-backed Houthi rebels have vowed to halt Israeli shipping through the key waterway.

Israel’s national security adviser said Israel would give Western allies “some time” to organize a response but if the threats persist, “we will act to remove this blockade.”

source https://time.com/6344541/gaza-fighting-rages-israel-renewed-us-support/

Tennessee Tornadoes Kill at Least Six. Here’s What to Know

Severe storms and tornadoes that swept across Tennessee killed six people and injured at least two dozen more on Saturday.

The extreme weather destroyed homes, cut off power and closed roads, leading one mayor to issue a nighttime curfew of 9 p.m. for Saturday and Sunday.

“This is a sad day for our community,” Montgomery County Mayor Wes Golden said in a statement about the three people, including one child, who died in the area bordering Kentucky. “We are praying for those who are injured, lost loved ones, and lost their homes. This community pulls together like no other and we will be here until the end.”

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Here’s what to know. 

What happened and what is the extent of the damage?

The National Weather Service issued severe weather watches and reported two dozen hail storms, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes across several counties in central and northern Tennessee on Saturday. The first touched down just before 1:30 p.m. in Cumberland City in Stewart County, northwest of Nashville. 

At approximately 2 p.m., a tornado touched down in the area of Hand Estates, a neighborhood in the vicinity of Garrettsburg Road in Montgomery County, the Sheriff’s Office said. Clarksville Fire and Rescue shared photos on Facebook of ripped-up houses and a flipped semi-truck.

Three people—two adults and one child—were killed and 23 people treated at the hospital for injuries, Montgomery County said in a Facebook post. TIME reached out to the county for more information on the victims.

“This is devastating news and our hearts are broken for the families of those who lost loved ones,” City of Clarksville Mayor Joe Pitts said in a statement. “The City stands ready to help them in their time of grief.”

Further south in Nashville, at least three people died and others were injured along Nesbitt Lane north of downtown, Metro Nashville PD said via social media. Meanwhile, Nashville’s Emergency Operations Ctr. shared pictures of mangled homes and jumbled debris crashed on top of a car in the area.

The Nesbitt Lane area has severe damage. Our Personnel along with @NashvilleFD are on scene. Avoid this area. Remember do not approach downed power lines. pic.twitter.com/0eaShIa8VJ

— Nashville EOC/OEM (@NashvilleEOC) December 10, 2023

The Metropolitan Nashville Police Department said Joseph Dalton, 37, was inside his mobile home and died when the storm threw it on top of another residence, killing Floridema Gabriel Perez, 31, and her son, Anthony Elmer Mendez, 2, the Associated Press reported. Two other children, one in each home, were taken to the hospital with non-life-threatening injuries, per the AP.

TIME reached out to the police department for more information. 

Also in Davidson County, where Nashville is located, another tornado around 4:45 p.m. flipped a car on the interstate, the National Weather Service said. As of 10 p.m., the severe weather threat ended for all of Middle Tennessee, the agency reported.

TIME has reached out to other counties to find out impacts. 

How have the storms disrupted life?

Sumner County, northeast of Nashville, declared a state of emergency on Saturday. In Montgomery County, Clarksville, Mayor Joe Pitts also declared a state of emergency and placed the city under a curfew for Saturday and Sunday night, starting at 9 p.m.

As of Saturday, multiple roads in Montgomery County were closed because of downed trees, power lines and an overturned semi-truck, the county said on Facebook. 

The storms knocked out power to around 19,000 customers, Cumberland Electric Membership Corporation reported. As of Sunday morning, around 13,000 customers around Clarksville were still without power, the company’s website showed. 

On Saturday evening, about 39,000 customers in Nashville were without electricity after two substations were damaged, the city’s emergency operations center said. The agency said that it was working to restore as much power as quickly as possible, “but the damage is severe and it will take our crews time as the assessments continue until the morning.”  

Nashville Electric Service reported that nearly 28,500 customers were still in the dark Sunday morning. 

There was no information readily available on Sunday morning as to whether schools would be in session on Monday in Montgomery, Davidson or Sumner counties. TIME reached out to school districts for more information. 

Where can people get assistance and how can others help?

The American Red Cross said on Saturday it was running three shelter locations in Tennessee: Northeast High School at 3701 Trenton Road in Clarksville, Beech High School at 3126 Long Hollow Pike in Hendersonville, and Isaac Litton Middle School at 4601 Hedgewood Drive in Nashville. If you are displaced, the relief organization said to call them at 1-800-RED CROSS for assistance. 

Local nonprofit organizations were also taking donations Saturday to help those who evacuated. 

Nonprofit YAIPak issued an urgent request for cots, blankets, portable lights, ready to eat food, water, generators, household cleaning supplies, flashlights, batteries, plywood, large tarps, totes with lids, baby care items and small children’s toys. Those in the area can deliver donations to 1255 Paradise Hill Road in Clarksville. Others can donate to the Red Cross and its Tennessee local chapter to support.

source https://time.com/6344521/tennessee-tornadoes-death-toll-injuries-power-cuts/

As the Israel-Hamas War Governs the World’s Attention, Iran Is Quietly Marching Towards Nuclear Breakout

When Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad invaded Israel on Oct.7, they didn’t just perpetrate the most deadly attack on Jews since the Holocaust. The Iran-trained and supported terrorists also helped divert the world’s attention away from how Iran is quietly, but quickly, marching towards nuclear breakout. In February, top Biden Administration official Colin Kahl, the then-Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, admitted that Iran could soon assemble a crude nuclear device in days.

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Understandably, the U.S. and its allies are now focused on urgent, immediate regional crises—namely the IDF’s military operation to eliminate Hamas from Gaza and dealing with the ever-growing threat of militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon. But a nuclear Iran remains the gravest long-term regional security threat facing Israel, the Middle East, and the United States, and it is not too late to stop Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapon.

The diplomatic backdrop has already changed considerably for Iran’s nuclear aspirations. In the weeks and months before the Oct. 7 attack, Israel and Saudi Arabia were close to completing a normalization agreement, building off the Abraham Accords, which were originally conceived by its architect Jared Kushner and which both of us were involved in advising and negotiating.

The imminent addition of Saudi Arabia—home of Mecca, the spiritual center of Islam—to the Abraham Accords likely motivated Hamas’ attacks on Israel. Saudi-Israel normalization would have been disastrous for Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s terrorist proxies, and the Iranian regime’s stated goal of destroying Israel. The more that the people of the region accept Israel’s existence, the harder it becomes for Tehran to obliterate the Jewish state and assert dominance over the Middle East.

We remain confident Saudi Arabia will eventually recognize Israel’s existence, but not right now. The scenes of Israeli fighters marching through Gaza broadcast throughout the Middle East threaten to inflame a pre-existing hatred of Israel that makes normalization politically untenable at this time, even for Gulf monarchies not beholden to voting publics.

We firmly judge this derailment of the next phase of the Abraham Accords as the great geopolitical casualty of the Oct. 7 attack. Even more importantly, the Ayatollah seems to believe the West is now further distracted and perhaps more deterred from confronting Iran over its nuclear program, as full-fledged nuclear weapons creep ever closer to fruition.

The strides Iran has made in its nuclear program over the last few years have flown under the radar. Today, Tehran has enough enriched uranium to produce a nuclear weapon in only 12 days according to data collected from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Iran is essentially a nuclear threshold state given their stockpile of uranium, with estimated enrichment levels as high as 84%. For context, 90% is the benchmark for full breakout capability. International sanctions on the regime’s ballistic missile program have also been allowed to expire, giving the regime carte blanche to further develop and proliferate the delivery vehicles necessary for a potential strike with the ability to reach Tel Aviv, Haifa, or even a European capital.

The potential destructive power of an Iranian nuclear weapon is obvious, but even the mere threat of a nuclear Iran is a potent weapon for the Ayatollah right now. He has surely seen how Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threats seemingly deterred the U.S. from fully supporting Ukraine, according to experts including former American diplomat John E. Herbst. The Ayatollah may feel emboldened to run the same playbook now, especially if Israel reoccupies Gaza for the long-term or Hezbollah aggression compels the Israeli military to enter Lebanon in the months ahead.

The U.S. has repeatedly backed down from even minor confrontation with Iran in the interests of avoiding a wider regional war, including responding rather timidly to attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq by Iran-backed militias in recent weeks. As 60 Minutes detailed in November, the regime’s assassination campaigns on U.S. soil against U.S. officials and dissidents also continue apace.

It seems conceivable that the Ayatollah may continue to scale the escalation ladder with increasingly potent nuclear threats. U.S. and Israeli officials have messaged resolve not to let Iran obtain a nuclear weapon, but whether Israel and the U.S. actually have the political will to destroy the Iranian bomb-making program remains to be seen.

Even with Iran entrenched as a nuclear threshold state, it is not too late to stop the West Asia country  from obtaining nuclear weapons. The U.S. should be galvanized by the current conflict to restore deterrence against Iran—beginning with stronger enforcement of sanctions designed to cut off the regime’s number one source of income: oil revenues. The money generated from its petroleum exports funds Iran’s nuclear program and terrorist proxies alike, with windfall profits from increased oil exports, as we’ve discussed previously. 

As Secretary of State in 2016, John Kerry proudly proclaimed that the world was safer thanks to the nuclear deal he engineered, which released $150 billion in sanctions relief to Iran. In hindsight, Kerry’s sheepish admission that some of that money might go towards terrorism has proven sadly prescient, and we should hit pause on this spigot immediately.

Additionally, the U.S. must continue to pressure the IAEA to conduct rigorous inspections of Iranian nuclear facilities and hold the regime accountable when it does not abide by its commitments. An IAEA report released on Sept. 4 stated: “Iran’s decision to remove all of the agency’s equipment previously installed in Iran for JCPOA-related surveillance and monitoring activities has also had detrimental implications for the agency’s ability to provide assurance of the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program.”

To deter nuclear escalation, the world must impose new, tougher costs on Iran when it skirts IAEA regulations, stopping the country in its tracks before it progresses any further towards an actual nuclear weapon. Failure to do so makes it increasingly likely that Iran asserts control on the escalation ladder through nuclear threats, whether in the crisis in Israel or with increasing support for its terrorist proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and beyond.

American policy makers are rightly seized with the urgent and important work of supporting Israel’s counter-offensive efforts against terrorists in Gaza. We should not, however, lose sight of the fact that the current crisis is inextricably tied to the strategic imperative of stopping Iran’s march to the bomb.

Should we fail to urgently address and counter Iran’s nuclear program, today’s conflicts in the Middle East will likely become far worse.

With research assistance by Steven Tian.

source https://time.com/6344430/israel-hamas-war-iran-nuclear-breakout/