11 Bodies Recovered After Volcanic Eruption in Indonesia, and 12 Climbers Are Still Missing

PADANG, Indonesia — The bodies of 11 climbers were recovered Monday a day after a furious eruption of the Mount Marapi volcano as Indonesian rescuers searched for 12 apparently still missing.

Marapi has stayed at the third highest of four alert levels since 2011, a level indicating above normal volcanic activity and prohibiting climbers or villagers within 3 kilometers (1.8 miles) of the peak, said Hendra Gunawan, the head of the Center for Volcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation.

[time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”]

“This means that there should be no climbing to the peak,” Gunawan said, adding that climbers were only allowed below the danger zone, “but sometimes many of them broke the rules to fulfill their satisfaction to climb further.”

Read More: Thousands Flee a Volcano in the Philippines Fearing a Possible Violent Eruption

About 75 climbers had started their way up the nearly 2,900-meter (9,480-foot) mountain on Saturday and became stranded. Eight of those rescued Sunday were rushed to hospitals with burns and one also had a broken limb, said Hari Agustian, an official at the local Search and Rescue Agency in Padang, the West Sumatra provincial capital.

All of the climbers had registered at two command posts or online through West Sumatra’s conservation agency before they climbed, Agustian said. It was possible others took illegal roads or local residents were active in the area, but it couldn’t be confirmed, he said.

Marapi spewed thick columns of ash as high as 3,000 meters (9,800 feet) in Sunday’s eruption and hot ash clouds spread several miles (kilometers). Nearby villages and towns were blanketed by tons of volcanic debris. Volcanic dust and rain smeared the faces and hair of evacuated climbers, according to video on social media.

Falling ash blanketed several villages and blocked sunlight, and authorities distributed masks and urged residents to wear eyeglasses to protect them from volcanic ash. About 1,400 people live on Marapi’s slopes in Rubai and Gobah Cumantiang, the nearest villages about 5 to 6 kilometers (3.1 to 3.7 miles) from the peak.

Gunawan said that Sunday’s eruption was not preceded by a significant increase in volcanic earthquakes. Deep volcanic earthquakes were only recorded three times between Nov. 16 and on Sunday, while the deformation equipment or tiltmeter on the peak showed a horizontal pattern on the radial axis and a slight inflation on the tangential axis.

“This shows that the eruption process is taking place quickly and the center of pressure is very shallow, around the peak,” he said.

Marapi has been observed regularly erupting since 2004 with a gap of 2 to 4 years, Gunawan said.

“Marapi eruptions are always sudden and difficult to detect using equipment because the source is near the surface,” Gunawan said, “This eruption was not caused by the movement of magma.”

Read More: 8 of the World’s Most Dangerous Volcanoes, According to Experts

West Sumatra’s Search and Rescue Agency head Abdul Malik said rescuers found 11 bodies of climbers as they searched for those who still missing and rescued three others Monday morning.

“The evacuation process of the bodies and survivors are still ongoing,” he said, adding that rescuers are still searching for 12 climbers reportedly still missing.

Marapi has been active since a January eruption that caused no casualties. It is among more than 120 active volcanoes in Indonesia, which is prone to seismic upheaval due to its location on the Pacific “Ring of Fire,” an arc of volcanoes and fault lines encircling the Pacific Basin.

—Karmini reported from Jakarta, Indonesia.

source https://time.com/6342183/bodies-recovered-indonesia-mount-marapi-volcano/

The Israel-Hamas War Reveals the Fundamental Flaws of Social Media

Today, the images and videos circulating, especially across social media, are offering a very poor representation of the truth of what happened on Oct. 7 in Israel. This is partly due to the Israeli government’s understandable efforts to protect the privacy and dignity of the victims, and abstaining from publishing evidence of the atrocities committed to the public. At the same time, the content that is flooding social platforms now reveals that something is fundamentally broken in how millions of people around the world are consuming information about the events of the Hamas Massacre and the subsequent Israel-Hamas War. Rightly, there is ample heart-wrenching footage from Gaza across social media platforms amidst significant civilian casualties; but there is also sadly rampant misinformation fomenting anger, and extremist antisemitic and Islamophobic hate alike, on those platforms.

[time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”]

The problem appears particularly prevalent on TikTok, whose short-video format is not wholly conducive to providing accurate, verifiable context. The fact that pro-Palestinian hashtags on TikTok have more reach than 10 top mainstream news sites from across the political spectrum combined, according to research conducted by data scientist Anthony Goldbloom, may not sound particularly disturbing on its own. And likewise with the fact there are 54 views of videos with pro-Palestinian hashtags for every view of a TikTok video with a pro-Israel hashtag in the U.S. or that #freepalestine is one of the top-performing hashtags across all of TikTok. 

But what is disturbing is that even a cursory scroll through these TikTok videos and “Photo Mode” on a random search reveals what many argue is rampant atrocity-denying antisemitic content. Some of those many examples can be seen in this catalogue by Jonathan Greenblatt’s Anti-Defamation League, with some posts blatantly denying any atrocities occurred or peddling antisemitic tropes. These posts are still pervasive even though TikTok claims that they have beefed up their content moderation team, removing millions of videos promoting Hamas, hate speech, terrorism, and misinformation. Unfortunately, their content moderators may still be outgunned with even TikTok acknowledging that they have “seen spikes in fake engagement” as well as a “rise in content promoting terrorism” in unprecedented scale and scope. 

TikTok recently spoke out after videos promoting Osama bin Laden’s “Letter to America” racked up millions of views on the app. Written by the former Al Qaeda leader in 2002, the letter heavily criticized the U.S. and attempted to justify the 9/11 terrorist attacks. In a statement, TikTok said: “Content promoting this letter clearly violates our rules on supporting any form of terrorism. We are proactively and aggressively removing this content and investigating how it got onto our platform.”

Further suggesting that TikTok’s content moderators can barely keep up with the sheer volume of misinformation is the fact that graphic videos produced by Hamas celebrating terrorism have garnered millions of views, despite nominal bans, according to Steven Brill and Gordon Crovitz of NewsGuard.

Perhaps, then, it is not entirely surprising that one survey by Generation Lab found that even though much questionable TikTok content emerges from overseas countries such as Pakistan and Qatar, spending 30 minutes a day on TikTok increases, by nearly 20%, the chances an average U.S. respondent holds antisemitic views. TikTok’s defense, that the attitudes of many TikTok users, particularly young people, are pro-Palestinian long before the video-sharing app existed does not inspire confidence amidst what Deborah Lipstadt, President Biden’s Special Envoy for Antisemitism, calls a “gobsmacking” rise of instances of antisemitism.

Lest anyone think that antisemitism is the only form of hate speech on social media, TikTok competitor Instagram, owned by Meta, has drawn fire for allegations of systemic Islamophobia and unfairly discriminating against Arabic content posters. According to the Wall Street Journal’s Jeff Horwitz, and confirmed by Meta’s own internal reports, Meta’s automated content moderation tools have long struggled to parse different Arabic dialects, in particular the Palestinian Arabic dialect. In one particularly egregious recent glitch, Instagram’s automatic translations started censoring innocuous content by accidentally, unjustly rendering the word “Palestinian” along with an emoji as “Palestinian terrorists.” In response to these incidents, Meta was forced to apologize for translation glitches and acknowledged that they are in the process of improving their algorithms.

X, formerly known as Twitter, has drawn scrutiny for its own numerous stumbles. NewsGuard recently found that blue-checked, “verified” users on X produce a startling 74% of the platform’s most viral false and unsubstantiated claims peddling both antisemitic denials of atrocities as well as doctored footage meant to stoke Islamophobia. X responded by issuing an ad hominem attack against NewsGuard, with owner Elon Musk tweeting, “NewsGuard is a propaganda shop that will produce any lies you want if you pay them enough money” echoing Musk’s earlier call for NewsGuard to be “disbanded immediately,” though NewsGuard stands by their substantive data findings. Furthermore, Media Matters published a report finding that X placed corporate advertisements for companies such as Apple, Bravo, IBM, Oracle, and Comcast next to pro-Nazi, antisemitic, and Islamophobic content. Although X denied these claims and filed a lawsuit against Media Matters, Musk’s recent taunt to advertisers of “Go f–k yourself” at Andrew Ross Sorkin’s Dealbook Summit does not exactly inspire confidence in X’s practices.

Sure, cynics could point out that social media platforms have long struggled with how to police misinformation across a variety of issues ranging from vaccine conspiracies to election meddling to teen risks. But the distortions surrounding the Israel-Hamas conflict, and the rampant antisemitism and Islamophobic hate they have spurred, strikes at something more fundamental.

80 years ago, when Allied troops liberated the emaciated, diseased skeletal survivors of Nazi concentration camps, Supreme Allied Commander General Dwight Eisenhower insisted on having international press see the horrors of the Holocaust with their own eyes to preempt the propaganda of historical denialism. As Eisenhower wrote, “the visual evidence and the verbal testimony of starvation, cruelty, and bestiality were so overpowering as to leave me sick… we made the visit deliberately in order to be in a position to give first-hand evidence of these things if ever, in the future, there develops a tendency to charge these allegations merely to ‘propaganda.’”

Now, with rampant denial of Hamas’ atrocities on the rise, Eisenhower’s warning seems especially prescient as this is not an abstract debate over preferred statistical methodology or about competing intellectual theory. Much as how historian Tim Snyder and Special Envoy for Antisemitism Deborah Lipstadt have called out Holocaust deniers as perpetuating fraud, or when Pulitzer Prize winning historian David Blight called out slavery deniers as fraudulent, there is such a thing as the truth, and there is such a thing as evil. Each should be clearly recognized as such with no ambiguity.

source https://time.com/6342140/israel-hamas-war-social-media-flaws/

The Pentagon Says U.S. Warship, Commercial Ships Have Come Under Attack in the Red Sea

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — An American warship and multiple commercial ships came under attack Sunday in the Red Sea, the Pentagon said. Yemen’s Houthi rebels later claimed attacks on two ships they described as being linked to Israel, but did not acknowledge targeting a U.S. Navy vessel.

[time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”]

The attack potentially marked a major escalation in a series of maritime attacks in the Mideast linked to the Israel-Hamas war.

“We’re aware of reports regarding attacks on the USS Carney and commercial vessels in the Red Sea and will provide information as it becomes available,” the Pentagon told The Associated Press.

The Carney is an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer. It remained unclear what damage, if any, the vessels sustained in the attacks.

The British military earlier said there had been a suspected drone attack and explosions in the Red Sea, without elaborating.

The Pentagon did not identify where it believed the fire came from. However, Houthi military spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree claimed the attacks, saying the first vessel was hit by a missile and the second by a drone while in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. He described the ships as allegedly ignoring warnings from Houthi officials prior to the attack.

Saree did not mention any U.S. warship being involved in the attack.

“The Yemeni armed forces continue to prevent Israeli ships from navigating the Red Sea (and Gulf of Aden) until the Israeli aggression against our steadfast brothers in the Gaza Strip stops,” Saree said. “The Yemeni armed forces renew their warning to all Israeli ships or those associated with Israelis that they will become a legitimate target if they violate what is stated in this statement.”

Saree identified the first vessel attacked as the Bahamas-flagged bulk carrier Unity Explorer, which is owned by a British firm that includes Dan David Ungar, who lives in Israel, as one of its officers. The second was a Panamanian-flagged container ship called Number 9, which is linked to Bernhard Schulte Shipmanagement. Managers for the two vessels could not be immediately reached for comment.

Israeli media identified Ungar as being the son of Israeli shipping billionaire Abraham “Rami” Ungar.

The Houthis have been launching a series of attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, as well as launching drones and missiles targeting Israel amid the war.

A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters, said the attack began about 10 a.m. in Sanaa, Yemen, and had gone on for as much as five hours. Another U.S. official who similarly spoke on condition of anonymity for the same reason said the Carney had intercepted at least one drone during the attack.

Global shipping had increasingly been targeted as the Israel-Hamas war threatens to become a wider regional conflict — even as a truce briefly halted fighting and Hamas exchanged hostages for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. However, the collapse of the truce and the resumption of punishing Israeli airstrikes and its ground offensive there had raised the risk of the seaborne attacks resuming.

Earlier in November, the Houthis seized a vehicle transport ship also linked to Israel in the Red Sea off Yemen. The rebels still hold the vessel near the port city of Hodeida. Missiles also landed near another U.S. warship last week after it assisted a vessel linked to Israel that had briefly been seized by gunmen.

However, the Houthis had not directly targeted the Americans for some time, further raising the stakes in the growing maritime conflict. In 2016, the U.S. launched Tomahawk cruise missiles that destroyed three coastal radar sites in Houthi-controlled territory to retaliate for missiles being fired at U.S. Navy ships at the time.

source https://time.com/6342129/pentagon-warship-commercial-attack-red-sea-militants/

Philippine President Blames Militants for a Bombing That Killed 4 Worshippers at Catholic Mass

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippine president blamed “foreign terrorists” for a bomb blast that killed four people Sunday, wounded dozens of other Catholic worshippers in the south and sparked a security alarm, including in the capital, Manila, where state forces were put on alert.

The suspected bomb, which the police said was made from a mortar round, went off and hit students and teachers who attended a Mass in a gymnasium at Mindanao State University in southern Marawi city, Taha Mandangan, the security chief of the state-run campus, told The Associated Press by telephone.

[time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”]

Dozens of students and teachers dashed out of the gym and the wounded were taken to hospitals.

Regional military commander Maj. Gen. Gabriel Viray III said four people were killed by the explosion, including three women, and 50 others were brought to two hospitals for treatment.

Six of the wounded were fighting for their lives in a hospital, said Gov. Mamintal Adiong Jr. of the Islamic province of Lanao del Sur, which has Marawi as its capital.

“I condemn in the strongest possible terms the senseless and most heinous acts perpetrated by foreign terrorists upon the Mindanao State University,” President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said in a statement. “Extremists who wield violence against the innocent will always be regarded as enemies to our society.”

Marcos did not explain why he immediately blamed foreign militants for the high-profile bombing. Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. later told a news conference without elaborating there was a strong indication of a “foreign element” in the bombing.

Military chief of staff Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr. said the bomb attack could be retaliation by Muslim militants for a series of battle setbacks.

“We are looking at possible angles,” Brawner said. “It could be a retaliatory attack,”

He cited the killing of 11 suspected Islamic militants in a military offensive backed by airstrikes and artillery fires on Friday near Datu Hoffer town in southern Maguindanao province.

Regional police director Brig. Gen. Allan Nobleza said the slain militants belonged to Dawlah Islamiyah, an armed group that had aligned itself with the Islamic State group and still has a presence in Lanao del Sur province.

Mosque-studded Marawi city came under attack from foreign and local Islamic militants who had associated themselves with the Islamic State group in 2017. The five-month siege left more than 1,100 dead, mostly militants, before it was quelled by Philippine forces backed by airstrikes and surveillance planes deployed by the United States and Australia.

Army troops and police cordoned off the university shortly after the bombing and began an investigation, checking security cameras for any indication of who may have been responsible for the attack. Security checkpoints were set up around the city.

Police Lt. Gen. Emmanuel Peralta told reporters that military and police bomb experts found fragments of a 60mm mortar round in the scene of the attack.

Such explosives fashioned from mortar rounds had been used in past attacks by Islamic militants in the country’s south.

The deadly blast set off a security alarm beyond Marawi city as the Christmas season ushered in a period of travel, shopping sprees and traffic jams across the country. Police and other state forces were put under “heightened alert” in metropolitan Manila, security officials said.

The Philippine coast guard said it ordered all its personnel to intensify intelligence gathering, stricter inspections of passenger ferries and the deployment of bomb-sniffing dogs and sea marshals.

“Amid this barbaric act, best public service must prevail,” coast guard chief Admiral Ronnie Gavan said.

The southern Philippines is the homeland of minority Muslims in the predominantly Roman Catholic nation and the scene of decades-old separatist rebellions.

The largest armed insurgent group, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, signed a 2014 peace deal with the government, considerably easing decades of fighting. But a number of smaller armed groups rejected the peace pact and press on with bombings and other attacks while evading government offensives.

source https://time.com/6342102/philippines-bombing-militants-terrorists-catholic-mass/

Police Raid Moscow Gay Bars After Court Labels LGBTQ+ Movement ‘Extremist,’ Says Local Media

Russian security forces raided gay clubs and bars across Moscow Friday night, less than 48 hours after the country’s top court banned what it called the “global LGBTQ+ movement” as an extremist organization.

Police searched venues across the Russian capital, including a nightclub, a male sauna, and a bar that hosted LGBTQ+ parties, under the pretext of a drug raid, local media reported.

[time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”]

Eyewitnesses told journalists that clubgoers’ documents were checked and photographed by the security services. They also said that managers had been able to warn patrons before police arrived.

The raids follow a decision by Russia’s Supreme Court to label the country’s LGBTQ+ “movement” as an extremist organization.

The ruling, which was made in response to a lawsuit filed by the Justice Ministry, is the latest step in a decadelong crackdown on LGBTQ+ rights under President Vladimir Putin, who has emphasized “traditional family values” during his 24 years in power.

Activists have noted the lawsuit was lodged against a movement that is not an official entity, and that under its broad and vague definition authorities could crack down on any individuals or groups deemed to be part of it.

Several LGBTQ+ venues have already closed following the decision, including St. Petersburg’s gay club Central Station. It wrote on social media Friday that the owner would no longer allow the bar to operate with the law in effect.

Max Olenichev, a human rights lawyer who works with the Russian LGBTQ+ community, told The Associated Press before the ruling that it effectively bans organized activity to defend the rights of LGBTQ+ people.

“In practice, it could happen that the Russian authorities, with this court ruling in hand, will enforce (the ruling) against LGBTQ+ initiatives that work in Russia, considering them a part of this civic movement,” Olenichev said.

Before the ruling, leading Russian human rights groups had filed a document with the Supreme Court that called the Justice Ministry lawsuit discriminatory and a violation of Russia’s constitution. Some LGBTQ+ activists tried to become a party in the case but were rebuffed by the court.

In 2013, the Kremlin adopted the first legislation restricting LGBTQ+ rights, known as the “gay propaganda” law, banning any public endorsement of “nontraditional sexual relations” among minors. In 2020, constitutional reforms pushed through by Putin to extend his rule by two more terms also included a provision to outlaw same-sex marriage.

After sending troops into Ukraine in 2022, the Kremlin ramped up a campaign against what it called the West’s “degrading” influence. Rights advocates saw it as an attempt to legitimize the war. That same year, a law was passed banning propaganda of “nontraditional sexual relations” among adults, also, effectively outlawing any public endorsement of LGBTQ+ people.

Another law passed this year prohibited gender transitioning procedures and gender-affirming care for transgender people. The legislation prohibited any “medical interventions aimed at changing the sex of a person,” as well as changing one’s gender in official documents and public records.

Russian authorities reject accusations of LGBTQ+ discrimination. Earlier this month, Russian media quoted Deputy Justice Minister Andrei Loginov as saying that “the rights of LGBT people in Russia are protected” legally. He was presenting a report on human rights in Russia to the U.N. Human Rights Council in Geneva, arguing that “restraining public demonstration of nontraditional sexual relationships or preferences is not a form of censure for them.”

The Supreme Court case is classified and it remains unclear how LGBTQ+ activists and symbols will be restricted.

Many people will consider leaving Russia before they become targeted, said Olga Baranova, director of the Moscow Community Center for LGBTQ+ Initiatives.

“It is clear for us that they’re once again making us out as a domestic enemy to shift the focus from all the other problems that are in abundance in Russia,” Baranova told the AP.

source https://time.com/6342071/police-raid-moscow-gay-bars-russia-court/

U.S. Targets Oil and Natural Gas Industry’s Role in Global Warming With New Final Rule

WASHINGTON — The Biden administration on Saturday issued a final rule aimed at reducing methane emissions, targeting the U.S. oil and natural gas industry for its role in global warming as President Joe Biden seeks to advance his climate legacy.

The Environmental Protection Agency said the rule will sharply reduce methane and other harmful air pollutants generated by the oil and gas industry, promote use of cutting-edge methane detection technologies and deliver significant public health benefits in the form of reduced hospital visits, lost school days and even deaths. Air pollution from oil and gas operations can cause cancer, harm the nervous and respiratory systems and contribute to birth defects.

[time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”]

EPA Administrator Michael Regan and White House climate adviser Ali Zaidi announced the final rule at the U.N. climate conference in the United Arab Emirates. Separately, the president of the climate summit announced Saturday that 50 oil companies representing nearly half of global production have pledged to reach near-zero methane emissions and end routine flaring in their operations by 2030.

Vice President Kamala Harris, the top American representative at the summit, said the U.S. and other nations must act boldly to confront the fallout from climate change.

“The urgency of this moment is clear,” Harris said. “The clock is no longer just ticking. It is banging. And we must make up for lost time.”

The U.S. rule on methane emissions is part of a broader effort by the Biden administration that includes financial incentives to buy electric vehicles and upgrade infrastructure — spending that Harris said will total roughly $1 trillion over 10 years.

Oil and gas operations are the largest industrial source of methane, the main component in natural gas and far more potent than carbon dioxide in the short term. It is responsible for about one-third of planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions. Sharp cuts in methane emissions are a global priority to slow the rate of climate change and are a major topic at the conference, known as COP28.

Presidents, prime ministers and royals from nations rich and poor have vowed to reduce how much their countries spew heat-trapping gases and asked their colleagues to do better.

“On Day One, President Biden restored America’s critical role as the global leader in confronting climate change,” Regan said, referring to Biden’s actions returning the U.S. to the Paris climate agreement and ordering an immediate review of environmental regulations rolled back by the previous administration.

The methane rule finalizes a proposal Biden made at a UN climate conference in Scotland in 2021 and expanded a year later at a climate conference in Egypt. It targets emissions from existing oil and gas wells nationwide, rather than focusing only on new wells, as previous EPA regulations have done. It also regulates smaller wells that will be required to find and plug methane leaks. Such wells currently are subject to an initial inspection but are rarely checked again for leaks.

Studies have found that smaller wells produce just 6% of the nation’s oil and gas but account for up to half the methane emissions from well sites.

The plan also will phase in a requirement for energy companies to eliminate routine flaring, or burning of natural gas that is produced by new oil wells.

The new methane rule will help ensure that the United States meets a goal set by more than 100 nations to cut methane emissions by 30% by 2030 from 2020 levels, Regan said.

The EPA rule is just one of more than 100 actions the Biden administration has taken to reduce methane emissions, Zaidi added.

“From mobilizing billions in investment to plug orphaned wells, patch leaky pipes and reclaim abandoned mines, to setting strong standards that will cut pollution from the oil and gas sector, the Biden-Harris Administration is putting the full throw-weight of the federal government into slashing harmful methane pollution,” he said.

The new rule will be coordinated with a methane fee approved in the 2022 climate law. The fee, set to take effect next year, will charge energy producers that exceed a certain level of methane emissions as much as $1,500 per metric ton of methane. The plan marks the first time the U.S. government has directly imposed a fee, or tax, on greenhouse gas emissions.

The law allows exemptions for companies that comply with the EPA’s standards or fall below a certain emissions threshold. It also includes $1.5 billon in grants and other spending to help companies and local communities improve monitoring and data collection, and find and repair natural gas leaks.

Harold Wimmer, president and CEO of the American Lung Association, called the new rule a victory for public health.

“EPA heeded the urgent guidance of health experts across the country and finalized a strong methane rule that, when fully implemented, will significantly reduce hazardous air pollutants and climate-warming methane pollution from the oil and gas industry,” he said in a statement.

Methane has been shown to leak into the atmosphere during every stage of oil and gas production, Wimmer said, and people who live near oil and gas wells are especially vulnerable to these exposure risks.

David Doniger, a climate expert at the Natural Resources Defense Council, called methane a “super-polluter.” He said in an interview that the Biden plan “takes a very solid whack at climate pollution. I wish this had happened 10 years ago (under the Obama administration), but I’m really happy it’s happening now.”

Fred Krupp, president of the Environmental Defense Fund, said the new rule ensures that “the U.S. now has the most protective methane pollution limits on the books. With other countries also zeroing in on methane as a key climate risk, it’s a signal to operators worldwide that clean-up time is here,” he said.

The American Petroleum Institute, the oil industry’s top lobbying group, said it was reviewing the rule to see whether it meets a dual goal of reducing emissions while meeting rising energy demand.

“Smart federal regulation can help build on industry’s progress to date,” said Dustin Meyer, an API vice president.

The oil industry has generally welcomed direct federal regulation on methane, preferring a national standard to a hodgepodge of state rules. Even so, energy companies have asked EPA to exempt hundreds of thousands of the nation’s smallest wells from the pending rule.

source https://time.com/6342058/us-oil-natural-gas-industrys-global-warming/

Can China’s Baby Bust Be Reversed? Don’t Count On It

In late October, Chinese President Xi Jinping told the National Women’s Congress that “We should actively foster a new type of marriage and childbearing culture.” Such a statement is rich coming from a man, especially one who leads a party that for decades actively and sometimes brutally enforced family planning policies. It is also delusional: In all probability, China’s baby bust cannot be reversed, at least not anytime soon.

[time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”]

For one, increasing fertility rates in China would require bucking a well-established global trend that when living standards rise, fertility rates tend to fall. Rising incomes often come with changing values and different lifestyle realities, particularly that children are less likely to need to support household incomes. The only country that stands as a marginal outlier is the tiny African nation of Equatorial Guinea—which, with a population of 2 million and a GDP of $28 billion, is hardly a helpful test case to China’s 1.4 billion-person, nearly $18 trillion economy.

Read More: China’s Population Is Shrinking—and Graying. Here’s What It Means for the Future

Secondly, significant efforts to increase birthrates elsewhere have been tried for years and have largely failed. Despite introducing tax incentives, investments in childcare and education, and public service announcements, the Japanese government’s years-long struggle to boost birth rates has borne little fruit—its fertility rate of 1.26 is well below the replacement rate of 2.1.

This should come as no surprise. Several academic studies have found that tax incentives have “positive, but very small” effects on family planning decisions. One 2018 study of alternative forecast scenarios found that only fertility rates “far above replacement levels” and “unprecedented, ultimately unrealistic, volumes of migration over coming decades” would reverse Japan’s population decline. The paper cites estimates that Japan’s population will decline from around 125 million as of 2014 to 97 million in 2050 in a base-case scenario.

South Korea, France, Australia, and Russia are among other countries that have tried to reverse population declines with limited success. Put simply, demographic trends are stubborn things, and hard to reverse.

But Chinese policymakers will press on. The China Family Planning Association has introduced “pilot cities” that “will focus on a range of tasks which include promoting getting married and having children at adequate ages, encouraging parents to share childbearing responsibilities, and curbing the high costs of betrothal gifts and other outdated customs.” As with Japan, certain “miracle towns” may emerge that are backed by incredibly robust incentives, but a nationwide turnaround is far more difficult. Our base-case forecast at the University of Denver’s Pardee Center for International Futures projects that China’s best efforts will produce only marginal gains.

Some China-watchers have speculated that the ruling Chinese Communist Party could take the dramatic step of resorting to abortion bans. However, such bans may simply push women toward less safe methods and will likely do little to change fertility rates, to say nothing of the major reproductive-rights rollback that would entail.

Yet even if China somehow does defy past trends and manages to boost its national fertility rates substantially, it will take nearly two decades to pay off as babies born today finally enter the workforce. Meanwhile, its top-heavy “constrictive” population pyramid thanks to a decades-long one-child policy—which was only abandoned in 2016—will mean increasing old age dependency and the social and economic costs that come with it.

Read More: China’s Aging Population Is a Major Concern. But Its Youth May Be an Even Bigger Problem

The U.S. has been spared a similar fate than China—all thanks to immigration. The more than 1 million immigrants who come to the U.S. every year are a key underwriter of U.S. national power, leaving aside the thorny domestic politics around immigration policy.

Like the U.S., mass immigration is the only plausible short-term fix for China’s population crisis. But China under Xi has no interest in a Western-style melting pot—like elsewhere in Asia including Japan—that brings in millions of immigrants. He has spent years promoting a Han Chinese national identity.

To what extent China’s baby bust will have implications for the country’s ability to engage in a sustained great-power competition with America remains to be seen. In all likelihood, the demographic headwinds China is straining under will begin to undermine its national power in the coming decades, even if China’s strength and influence continue to grow in the meantime. What is certain is that if China continues to rise as the world’s leading geopolitical player, it will be in spite of what has to date been an enormous advantage: its behemoth population.

source https://time.com/6341316/china-baby-bust-demographics/